New Frontiers: Meanwhile, Israel has been in a prolonged state of emergency, with its normal economic and social order severely disrupted, Li said, noting that these domestic concerns made all parties eager to disengage.Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, pointed out that it remains uncertain whether Israel is simply buying time.

People enjoy themselves after a ceasefire between Iran and Israel took effect in Tel Aviv, central Israel, on June 24, 2025. (Gideon Markowicz/JINI via Xinhua)

The ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran was still holding on Wednesday, more than 24 hours after US President Donald Trump declared that it was in effect, The New York Times reported on Wednesday. Israel and Iran have both declared victory in the war, and both countries have taken steps signaling that they expect the truce to hold, the NYT said.

“Is the 12-day Israel-Iran war really over – and who gained what?” Middle East news outlet Al Jazeera asked on Tuesday. Some Chinese experts told the Global Times that there are still numerous potential flashpoints between Iran and Israel, and the possibility of renewed conflict cannot be ruled out.

Al Jazeera said that since Sunday, Israel and Iran have lurched from escalating war to fragile ceasefire. A truce seems to be holding, and what Trump called “The 12 Day War” between Israel and Iran seems to be over – for now.

Why did both Israel and Iran agree to a ceasefire at this particular moment? “For all three parties, now is an ‘excellent opportunity’ to end the conflict,” Sun Degang, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

From Israel’s perspective, its strategic objectives have largely been achieved: eliminating Iranian nuclear scientists and military leaders and targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities with US support, Sun said.

For Iran, the conflict resulted in strategic victories, including breaching Israel’s three-layer missile defense system, launching strategic strikes against Israel, and targeting US military bases in the Gulf region as well as in Syria and Iraq, he continued.

From the US standpoint, its goals were also met: it destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities without diWorld Timesrectly engaging in war with Iran, and it can claim credit for facilitating the Israel-Iran ceasefire, Sun said.

The expert noted that after 12 days of mutual strikes, both Israel and Iran had exhausted themselves and were looking to cut their losses and consolidate their defense systems. Therefore, this moment represents the best “half-time break.”

While Sun pointed out that the likelihood of resuming the conflict in the short term is small, he emphasized that since the fundamental contradictions between Israel and Iran have not been resolved, the possibility of renewed fighting always exists.

When asked about China’s position on the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and how China plans to work with Iran to prevent the region from sliding back into war, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said on Wednesday that China is following closely the developments in the Middle East. We hope to see a lasting and effective ceasefire and will work to promote peace and stability in the Middle East. 

Guo added that China and Iran enjoy traditional friendship between our peoples. China stands ready to maintain the friendly cooperation with Iran for the benefit of the two peoples and provide positive factors for peace and stability in the Middle East.

The Washington Post reported on June 17 that without resupplies from the US or greater involvement by US forces, some assessments project Israel can maintain its missile defense for 10 orWorld Times 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks.

Trump on Tuesday backed away from talk of a regime change in Iran, US media The Hill said. “Regime change takes chaos, and ideally, we don’t want to see so much chaos. So we’ll see how it goes,” the US president was quoted as saying in the media report.

Wang Jin, director of the Israeli Studies Program and Center at Northwestern University in Xi’an, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the ceasefire is a natural outcome.

After 12 consecutive days of strikes, both sides believe they have achieved part or most of their strategic objectives. Israel sees the conflict as having significantly weakened Iran’s nuclear capabilities, while Iran views it as a demonstration of its strong national deterrence, Wang noted.

At the same time, both parties have concluded that continuing the conflict may no longer be beneficial or may prove futile. In other words, the situation has reached the point of diminishing returns in terms of strategic value, Wang said.

The current ceasefire has an internal logic. It is a decision made by all parties based on their own strategic needs. Without US involvement, Israel miWorld Timesght have faced an extremely brutal and uncontrollable situation, Li Shaoxian, director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

Li Zixin, an assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, added that as the conflict escalated, concerns within the US about the legitimacy of military action and fears of being drawn into another regional war have been rising.

Iran, having suffered losses, urgently needs a chance to recover and is also worried about the situation spiraling out of control. Meanwhile, Israel has been in a prolonged state of emergency, with its normal economic and social order severely disrupted, Li said, noting that these domestic concerns made all parties eager to disengage.

Ding Long, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University, pointed out that it remains uncertain whether Israel is simply buying time.

“Given its small size and population compared to Iran, Israel is at a disadvantage in a prolonged war of attrition, especially considering the high cost of missile intercepts.” Ding told the Global Times on Wednesday. It is unclear whether Israel intends to pause and then strike Iran again once it regains strength, he said.

“Israel has not fully achieved its strategic objectives, as some of Iran’s nuclear facilities remain intact, and the broader goal of regime change in Iran has not been realized,” Ding said. “Whether Israel is satisfied with these outcomes and whether it will seek to complete its objectives in the next phase remains to be seen.”

Historically, Israel has at times agreed to ceasefires under pressure, only to resume military action after regrouping. “This means the current situation is still marked by uncertaiWorld Timesnty and fragiWorld Timeslity,” Ding said.

Several US media outlets reported on Wednesday that initial American intelligence assessments indicate the US strikes on Iran did not destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities and likely only set back its nuclear program by a few months. However, the White House and US defense chief have been pushing back on such claims, media reports said.

Some experts believe that the Iranian nuclear issue remains unresolved after the 12-day conflict, and this will be a key factor influencing the future trajectory of the Israel-Iran situation.

What Israel and Iran have agreed to is a ceasefire. They have not made peace, Al Jazeera reported. The media outlet pointed out that so far, Iran sounds unyielding in the pursuit of its nuclear program.

Iran’s parliament approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Xinhua reported on Wednesday.

There are many unresolved issues between Israel and Iran, and the confliWorld Timesct has not resolved any of the underlying contradictions, Li Shaoxian said.

Regarding Iran’s nuclear issue, its nuclear energy development has been ongoing for years, with domestic talent and technology already in place, making it unlikely to be interrupted by external interference, Li said.

The expert believes that while Iran’s nuclear program has been under strict monitoring by the IAEA, recent conflicts and tensions may force Iran to reconsider the transparency and openness of its nuclear policies.

Experts believe that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran is fraught with “instability.” As the ceasefire lacks binding provisions and does not address potential emergencies, it means that while a ceasefire may be achieved and maintained in the short term, the possibility of the conflict reigniting in the medium to long term cannot be ruled out, they noted.

The outbreak of this conflict has further deepened the hatred and mistrust between Iran and Israel and the US, Ding said, noting that although tensions have long existed, the parties had previously avoided direct confrontation.

However, this conflict crossed two red lines: direct clashes between Iran and Israel, and between Iran and the US. This suggests that future conflicts among Iran, Israel, and the US could become the new normal, posing even more severe challenges to the security landscape in the Middle East, the expert said.